Dutch Elections: Major Parties and Main Issues in Early Election
Voters in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most rightwing government in modern history with a more centrist and commonsense coalition during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Its Significance
Snap general elections were called after the breakdown of the outgoing administration in the summer, when rightwing politician the Freedom party leader withdrew his party from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after extended negotiations formed a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and center-right VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the premier position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has lived under police protection for twenty years, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to adopt a radical comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, turning back all asylum seekers, shutting down refugee hostels and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the far-right, Islam-critical party is once more projected to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but no single party is expected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, typically an significant force on the EU and world stage, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to achieve majority status. No individual group ever manages this, and the Holland has been governed by coalitions for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an certified roster of candidates in a country-wide district: any party that secures 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in many European nations, Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a significant drop in backing of the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Primary Concerns
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a complete freeze on asylum, Ukrainian men to be returned, the army to combat "street terrorists", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two parties, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the previous poll.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Headed by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its manifesto.
Three other parties appear set to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking youthful head, with a platform centred on housing (it plans to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is forecast to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its head, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decline. It is proposing business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an departure of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to lose out, with the NSC not even sure of legislative seats.
The primary concerns so far have been migration policy, with several – occasionally aggressive – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the nation is lacking 400,000 homes).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are actually possible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, usually the leader of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.
Various combinations look plausible, typically including a combination of parties from moderate left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and one or more minor groups possibly incorporating JA21.
